Oil prices edge up on hopes OPEC+ maintains supply curbs
Oil prices edged up in early Asian trade on Monday, recouping some losses from the previous session as hopes that OPEC+ will continue to curb output offset concerns of weaker fuel demand amid rising COVID-19 cases and higher production from Libya.
Both contracts gained more than 8% last week on hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine and that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies including Russia will maintain lower output next year to support prices.
The group, also known as OPEC+, has been cutting production by about 7.7 million barrels per day, with a compliance rate seen at 101% in October, and had planned to increase output by 2 million bpd from January.
However, the speedy recovery of oil production in Libya, an OPEC member, back to above 1.2 million bpd presents a challenge to OPEC+ cuts while a slowdown in traffic across Europe and the United States dampened fuel demand recovery hopes this winter.
“European motorway traffic is down almost 50% in recent weeks in some countries (such as France) as lockdown measures are increased,” ANZ analysts said.
People movement on highways in the United States was also slowing based on vehicle mileage data despite authorities’ reluctance to implement new restrictions, they added.
While fuel demand is slowing, Baker Hughes’ data showed that U.S. oil and natural gas rig count rose last week to their highest since May as producers, spurred by higher crude prices, return to the wellpad.
ANZ analysts expect the oil surplus to increase to between 1.5 million and 3 million bpd in the first half next year with a vaccine only boosting demand in the second half.