Asian shares fall on trade, Fed rate hike fears, pound hits 2-week top
Asian stocks were hammered on Monday as fears of faster rate hikes in the United States and uncertainty around the Sino-U.S. trade war dented risk sentiment, while sterling jumped to two-week highs on hopes of an orderly Brexit.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan stumbled more than 1 percent but was still well off a 1-1/2 year trough touched last week.
Japan’s Nikkei sank 1.2 percent while South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged 1.8 percent.
Chinese shares opened in the red with blue-chip stocks off 1 percent even as President Xi Jinping promised to lower import tariffs and continue to broaden market access.
Xi, however, acknowledged conditions abroad had created some challenges for the Chinese economy.
U.S. stock futures were down 0.3 percent after Wall Street closed in the red on Friday on a combination of upbeat jobs growth for October and concerns a trade deal between the United States and China may not be struck soon.
“We expect U.S.-China trade tensions to get worse before they get better,” Citi analysts said in a note.
“Although trade growth has held steady, concerns are rising in business surveys,” they added.
“Equity markets do not seem to be fully incorporating the risks of an escalation of tensions yet, which could have an effect on investment, sentiment, inflation, and growth.”
Sentiment is also broadly expected to be nervous ahead of U.S. congressional midterm elections on Tuesday.
Opinion polls show a strong chance that the Democratic Party could win control of the House of Representatives after two years of wielding no practical political power in Washington, with President Donald Trump’s Republican Party likely to hold the Senate.
Also clouding the outlook for world shares is the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the United States, given robust economic data in recent months.
The United States reported solid jobs growth for October, with annual wage gains at 9-1/2-year highs, further boosting expectations for a December rate rise.
“The U.S. employment report supports our view that the Federal Reserve will raise rates three more times from now until mid-2019,” Capital Economics said in a note.
“After that, we suspect that the cumulative effect of monetary policy tightening will start taking a toll on the US economy, forcing the Fed to end its tightening cycle and pulling Treasury yields, the US stock market, and the dollar down.”
Sterling jumped to a two-week high on Monday on growing hopes of a smooth Brexit, while Asian stocks started the week gingerly amid worries over tense Sino-U.S. trade relations.
With just five months to go until Britain exits the European Union divorce talks are at an impasse, fuelling severe uncertainty among businesses and whipsawing sterling on any news of a possible breakthrough in the negotiations.
A Sunday Times report that an all-UK customs deal will be written into the agreement governing Britain’s withdrawal from the EU was enough to cheer investors who sent the pound to $1.3062, the highest since Oct. 22.
The currency has faltered in seven of the 10 months of this year so far, losing as much as 3.6 percent. It was last up 0.2 percent at $1.2989.
The Prime Minister’s office said the Sunday Times report was speculative, but added that 95 percent of the withdrawal agreement was settled and negotiations were ongoing.
The U.S. dollar struggled to hold gains made on Friday following the upbeat jobs data. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last off 0.1 percent at 96.459.
Against the safe haven yen, the dollar held at 113.17. The euro was flat at $1.1387.
In commodities, oil prices fell as the start to U.S. sanctions against Iran’s fuel exports was softened by waivers that will allow some countries to still import Iranian crude, at least temporarily.
U.S. crude fell 42 cents to $62.68 per barrel and Brent was last at $72.41, down 46 cents.
Spot gold held near 1-1/2 week highs amid solid festive demand from India, the world’s top buyer. It was last flat at $1,232.2 an ounce.